ChangeWave HotWire Blog

Shift in Boomer TV Habits

2009-06-15T21:01:05Z

By Paul Carton
June 15, 2009

A couple of decades back it was the Baby Boomers driving new waves of consumer demand, but are they still at the forefront of today’s media and technology transformation?

Surprisingly so, according to the latest ChangeWave survey of 1,660 members of the Baby Boom generation. The benchmark survey of business professionals between the ages of 45 and 63, completed in early May, focused on TV viewing habits vs. home Internet usage.

The results point to a powerful shift occurring among Boomers away from traditional TV towards new types of online services and entertainment. Importantly, this transformation is affecting lifelong habits.

In the first major finding, Boomers now spend more free time online (12.9 hrs per week on average) than they do watching traditional TV (11.8 hrs per week on average).

What’s more, by a five-to-one margin Boomers are watching less traditional television than they did a year ago. Among this group, 62% say it’s because they’re not as interested in what's on TV these days, and another 26% say they’re spending more time surfing the web.

Social Networking Not Just for Teens Anymore

One place that Boomer professionals are spending more time online is with social networking sites – where 51% say they currently maintain one or more profiles.

Nearly three-in-five (57%) of these Boomers report they use the networking site LinkedIn, while another 55% have a Facebook profile – the site normally thought to be most popular among teenagers.

But Boomer interest in social networking has its limitations – 77% of users say they would not be willing to pay a subscriber fee for social networking. Of all the services, LinkedIn is the most likely to attract paid subscribers – but only 7% say they’d be willing to pay a fee if it was no longer free.

A Closer Look at Traditional TV vs. Alternative Programming

Among traditional TV viewers, an astonishing one-in-five (20%) say they’re likely to downgrade or cancel their current TV service package in the next 6 months. The likelihood of canceling is highest among Cable (22%) and Satellite subscribers (22%), and lowest among fiber-optic TV subscribers (7%).

We also asked Boomer respondents to tell us which one paid subscription they’d be most willing to give up, and again its TV Service (44%) that appears most vulnerable – scoring significantly worse than any other subscription service.

Adding fuel to the fire, Video-over-the-Internet now clearly represents a significant threat to traditional TV viewing. Better than two-thirds of Boomers (69%) say they’ve watched video content on their computer over the past 90 days. Even more ominously, 48% of respondents say they’d be willing to pay a monthly fee for a Video-over-the-Internet subscription if it provided the same programming currently available on their TV service.

Top TV Websites. YouTube.com (79%) is the leading online website Boomers use to watch video, followed by TV Network Websites (39%), Hulu.com (16%) and iTunes (11%).

As a follow-up, we also asked respondents how willing they are to view advertisements when watching Video-over-the-Internet. And while Boomers clearly want to see fewer ads than they do with conventional broadcasting, more than two-thirds (68%) do say they are willing to view at least some ads online.

Winners and Losers

The shift among Boomers towards Video-over-the-Internet is a long-term trend that bodes poorly for traditional TV service providers, as they face a triple whammy of challenges:

• 20% of Boomers are likely to downgrade (or cancel) their current TV service in the next 6 months – mostly among Cable and Satellite users

• 44% say TV service is the paid subscription they are most willing to give up

• 48% said they’d be willing to pay a monthly fee for a Video-over-the-Internet subscription if it provided the same programming currently available on their TV service

At the same time, there appears to be a huge market opportunity for companies that can successfully package a paid subscription model for Internet TV.

Business IT Spending Stabilizing

2009-06-08T21:12:42Z

By Paul Carton
June 8, 2009

Last quarter we saw a leveling off in the rate of decline for business IT spending. But ChangeWave’s latest survey shows U.S. corporate IT spending in the process of rapidly stabilizing – with a dramatically improved outlook now in place for the third quarter.

The ChangeWave survey was conducted May 11-20, and a total of 1,849 respondents involved with IT spending in their organization participated.

Dramatic Improvement. Twenty-four percent of respondents said their company’s IT spending will decrease, or there will be no spending at all for the third quarter, but that’s a major 17-point improvement since our previous survey in February.

Another 15% said their company's IT spending will increase – 5-points improved and, most importantly, the first recorded uptick in a ChangeWave survey in two and one-half years.

We also askedrespondents if their IT spending was on track thus far in the second quarter, and the results show smaller but unmistakable signs of improvement.

One-in-ten respondents (11%) said they’ve spent “More than Planned” so far in the second quarter – 4-points better than our February survey. And while 33% said they’ve spent “Less than Planned” – that’s still a 5-point improvement from previously.

The Biggest IT Winners – Corporate PCs, Servers and Smart Phones

There are signs of momentum in corporate purchasing of PCs, Servers and Smart Phones.

Of the 13 IT categories looked at in this survey, PCs (Change in Net Difference Score = +6) and Servers (+5) registered the biggest increase by far since the previous quarter.

In the same survey, we also focused on corporate smart phone buying and found a resurgence set to occur in the coming quarter. A total of thirty-six percent of respondents report their company plans to buy smart phones in the 3rd Quarter – a 3-point increase from previously.

In terms of manufacturers, Research In Motion (RIMM; 75%) is maintaining its dominant share of corporate planned purchases going forward, but we note that it’s down 2-points since February.

Number two Apple (APPL; 26%; up 4-pts) continues to show surprising momentum in the corporate market – up 4-points to 26%.

Of course, most of Apple’s corporate share is among small- to medium-sized companies (under 1,000 Employees), while RIM’s corporate share is heavily concentrated among larger companies (over 1,000 Employees).

Bottom Line: ChangeWave's latest survey shows U.S. corporate IT spending in the process of rapidly stabilizing – with a dramatically improved outlook now in place for third quarter 2009.

All told, several bullish indicators – including the first recorded uptick in planned IT spending in two and one-half years – signal the U.S. business recession could be over before 2009 comes to a close.

Along with Apple and Research In Motion, other companies showing momentum in our latest survey include Cisco (CSCO; +4), VMware (VMW; +4), Microsoft (MSFT; +3) and Oracle (ORCL; +1).

Consumer Spending Looking Up

2009-06-01T21:18:58Z

By Paul Carton
June 1, 2009

The signs of improvement reported in our April consumer survey have continued to gain momentum, according to ChangeWave’s latest survey of 2,729 consumers.

The May 5-11 survey shows that while consumer spending remains low by historical standards, we’ve witnessed the most sustained improvement over the past 60 days that we’ve seen in more than 3 years.

We note that coming out of a recession is usually far bumpier than going into one, so while it’s encouraging that the worst appears over it is premature to say that we’re entirely out of the woods yet.

One-in-five U.S. respondents (21%) now say they’ll spend more money over the next 90 days, a big five point jump since April. Another 47% still say they’ll spend less, but that’s eight points better than previously.

The 13-point net gain going forward is the most significant improvement in consumer spending in nearly three and a half years. Moreover, the spending outlook has improved across all income categories, even among lower income households (under $50,000 per year).

A Surge in Consumer Sentiment and Expectations

We also asked respondents about their impressions of the economy, and found consumer sentiment and expectations have continued the dramatic improvement that we first picked up in April.

Nearly a third of respondents (31%) think that the overall direction of the U.S. economy is going to improve over the next 90 days, while just 27% believe it will worsen. That’s a 24-point net improvement since April, and the highest level of optimism that we’ve seen since we began asking this question back in September 2007.

The same is true in terms of consumer confidence in the U.S. stock market. A total of 45% now say they’re More Confident now than they were 90 days ago – a 13-point jump from previously. Only 16% say they’re Less Confident – 7-points improved.

The improvement in consumer spending behavior is occurring across multiple categories. In particular, spending on Restaurants, Consumer Electronics and Household Repairs/Improvements continues to build momentum.

Travel/Vacation has also experienced an increase – and while its partially due to seasonal factors, it’s nonetheless a positive sign for the sector.

Retail Store Trends

In perhaps the most encouraging sign, our latest results show positive movement for several of the big shopping retailers – including Target (TGT) (up 3-pts), T.J. Maxx (TJX) (+ 3), Bed, Bath and Beyond (BBBY) (+2), and Macy's (M) (+2).

We also note that despite the spending uptick it’s still the big discounters – Wal-Mart (WMT) and Costco (COST) – that appear best positioned to outperform going forward.

In terms of online shopping, Amazon (AMZN) continues to excel and remains one of the momentum leaders in our survey for the 6th consecutive month. As an example, 27% of respondents say they’ll shop at Amazon for home entertainment and computer networking products over the next 90 days – a 4-pt jump just since April.

Apple (AAPL) also shows additional momentum in the home entertainment market.

What’s the bottom line?

ChangeWave’s latest consumer survey shows that the improvement in U.S. consumer spending is continuing to gain momentum in May.

And while consumer spending remains low by historical standards, we’ve witnessed the most sustained improvement over the past 60 days that we’ve seen in more than 3 years.

One potential concern is that some of the improvement we’re now seeing may be due to the income tax refund checks many consumers are currently receiving along with the additional tax credits resulting from the 2009 U.S. stimulus package. It begets the question: How will consumers react once their tax refunds have been spent?

Stay tuned. We’ll know more after our next consumer survey is completed in a few weeks.

Doctors Weigh in on Genetic Testing

2009-05-26T15:46:40Z

By Paul Carton
May 26, 2009

ChangeWave's Healthcare survey of 322 physicians points to a rise in doctor referrals for genetic testing going forward, along with a strong willingness of doctors to refer patients for specific tests like cancer, diabetes and heart disease.

Results show that despite the overall belief that genetic testing is important, doctors still harbor a degree of hesitation with respect to the issues surrounding the tests. Many report being strong advocates of regulatory controls over the nascent genetic testing industry. Importantly, only one-in-ten doctors say genetic testing has become an integral part of their practice.

Rising Referrals

Nearly a third of doctors surveyed (30%) now say they’ve recommended or referred patients for a genetic test to asses risk for a specific disease over the past 12 months – an increase of 5-pts since our previous July 2008 survey. Testing patients’ risk for cancer (34%) was the top reason cited by physicians.

The ChangeWave survey also shows increasing demand for genetic testing. Better than one-in-five doctors (21%) report they’re More Likely to recommend or refer patients for genetic testing over the next 12 months, while only 3% say they’re Less Likely

Genetic Testing for Specific Diseases

The vast majority of doctors who have received inquiries about genetic testing say it’s because of patient concern over Risk for Developing a Specific Disease (85%). Another 13% say it’s because of General Health Concerns.

The survey also focused on several specific medical conditions, including Alzheimer’s, asthma, cancer, diabetes, heart disease, multiple sclerosis, and Parkinson’s disease.

The following chart shows the percentage of doctors who report their patients are Very or Somewhat Concerned with developing each condition – along with the change from our previous survey.

Cancer (92%) is still the disease patients are most concerned with, but heart disease (90%) and diabetes (85%) show the biggest increase since the previous survey – up 7-pts and 6-pts, respectively.

We note that a huge percentage of doctors say they're willing to refer patients for specific tests like cancer (82%; down 3-pts), diabetes (73%; down 5-pts) and heart disease (72%; down 8-pts), although these numbers are down slightly from previously.

Opinions on Genetic Testing

ChangeWave also asked doctors a series of true/false questions about genetic testing to gauge their opinions on a range of important issues.

Better than half of doctor respondents (53%) agree that information gained from genetic testing would help the overall wellness of patients at their practice.

Yet despite their belief that genetic testing is important and can help their patients, doctors still show significant hesitation. They also are strong advocates of regulatory controls over an industry still in its infancy.

The survey found that four-in-five doctors (80%) favor regulatory approval before a genetic test becomes available to consumers. Nearly three-in-five (58%) say patients should be required to have a doctor's permission before getting expensive genetic testing.

Just one-in-four (24%) believe the genetic tests available today are highly accurate and predictive, and only 22% say genetic testing companies should be allowed to market their services directly to consumers. Importantly, only one-in-ten doctors (11%) say genetic testing has become an integral part of their practice.

Genetic Testing Companies

ChangeWave also asked doctors about several companies that conduct genetic-based tests for individuals.

Genzyme (GENZ) ranks as the one they’re most familiar with (15% Very Familiar; 29% Somewhat Familiar). Genzyme offers a variety of services – including reproductive/ genetics testing and oncology/ pathology screening – for everything from rare conditions like Gaucher’s disease to breast and colorectal cancer.

Myriad Genetics (MYGN) ranked second in the survey, with 8% of doctors saying they were Very Familiar; and 29% Somewhat Familiar with the company’s services. Myriad offers testing for breast cancer, as well as ovarian, skin, and colon cancer.

The bottom line here is that while doctors are expanding their use of genetic testing, they aren't yet ready to proclaim that the tests are the key to unlocking disease diagnosis.

AT&T Rides iPhone's Coattails

2009-05-26T15:41:55Z

By Paul Carton
May 26, 2009

The U.S. cellular service provider market remains a two-horse race between AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ) – with the former leading in terms of future demand and the latter in terms of customer satisfaction and fewest dropped calls.

These and other key findings arose from a March ChangeWave survey of 4,292 consumers.

Future Share

When asked how likely they were to change service providers in the next 6 months, 13% of consumers said they were very or somewhat likely to switch.

Among that group, only 9% of current AT&T customers said they're likely to switch compared to 11% of Verizon customers – giving AT&T a slight edge in customer loyalty. But where do those consumers who are switching say they’re headed?

A full third (33%) say they’ll go with AT&T – a huge 6-pt jump from December to the highest level since we began asking this question back in 2005. Verizon (24%; up 2-pts), while still competitive, continues to lag behind.

Note that dating back to the period just before the original Apple (AAPL) iPhone rollout, AT&T has managed to stay in first place in terms of future demand.

A coincidence? Not likely.

But the big question going forward is how long can AT&T keep its exclusivity agreement with Apple and ride the iPhone’s coattails? While the current deal is set to expire next year, AT&T is in talks with Apple to extend it until 2011.

Rumors are that Apple is also in talks with Verizon about launching an iPhone-type line that will run on the Verizon network. If the rumors prove true, AT&T has plenty to worry about.

First, when it comes to customer satisfaction, Verizon is the hands down winner, as the following chart clearly points out.

A second related area that Verizon maintains an edge is in the frequency its customer’s experience "dropped calls." Once again, Verizon is the clear winner, with its customers reporting an average of just 1.8% of their calls dropped during the past 90 days – well ahead of all of its competitors including AT&T.

For a multitude of reasons, the survey results show AT&T would be best served if it can remain the exclusive iPhone distributor for North America, but Verizon may have other ideas.

However, there’s one clear winner here no matter which way the Apple falls from the tree – it’s the Apple.

Signs of Improved Software Spending Environment

2009-05-18T15:51:07Z

By Paul Carton
May 18, 2009

After a two-year downward spiral, ChangeWave’s latest corporate software spending survey is picking up unmistakable signs of an improved spending environment going forward.

While overall spending is still contracting, the 90-day outlook points to a dramatic lessening in the rate of decline – a critically important indicator that suggests business software spending could be coming out of recession sooner than expected.

The ChangeWave survey of 1,775 respondents involved with software purchasing in their company was conducted April 16-27, 2009.

Improved Software Spending Going Forward

Better than one-in-ten software buyers (11%) say their company will spend more on software over the next 90 days – 2-pts better than our January survey. And while 26% still say their company will spend less – that’s a huge 13-pt improvement over previously.

There were other promising signs of improvement in terms of corporate capital budgets.

While 36% said their company’s cap budget had been adjusted lower over the past 90 days, that’s a 10-pt improvement just since January. A total of 6% say their cap budget has actually increased – 1-pt better than previously.

Leading Software Categories

A key focus of this survey is on corporate spending increases and decreases within specific software categories.

Similar to our overall findings, corporate spending still remains negative in all but one of the software categories we looked at – but the rate of contraction has slowed dramatically.

Here's a look at one of the big winners in our current survey, Data Storage (Net Score = 0), where spending has stabilized going forward. A total of 14% of companies are increasing their spending on data storage over the next 90 days while 14% are decreasing their spending – an 11-pt net improvement over the previous survey.

A second category on the verge of turning positive is Virtualization software (-1).

A total of 14% of respondents say their company is increasing Virtualization Software spending going forward while only 15% say it is decreasing – a net 11-pt improvement from previously.

Other software categories that – while still negative – have shown the biggest improvements since the previous survey include Business Intelligence/Reporting and Analytics (-5; up 16-pts) and Customer Relationship Management (-5; up 14-pts).

Reasons Behind the Improvement

We asked our software buyers to tell us the key reasoning behind their software spending plans for the next 90 days. Three stand out:

While 22% still cite a general slowdown in business conditions and capital budgets as the factor most driving their purchasing decisions – that’s 2-pts improved from previously.

Similarly, while 27% still say their company currently doesn’t need to purchase any new software – that’s also 2-pts improved from previously.

In another positive sign, 6% of corporate respondents now say a general improvement in business conditions and capital budgets is driving their software purchasing decisions – 2-pts better than in January.

Bottom Line

Our latest corporate software survey has picked up substantial signs of an improved spending environment going forward. While overall spending is still contracting, the 90-day outlook points to a dramatic lessening in the rate of decline – a critically important indicator that suggests business software spending could be coming out of recession sooner than expected.

Smart Phone Survey Findings: 90 Day Outlook

2009-04-21T14:39:32Z

Consumer Demand Steady for iPhone, BlackBerry - But What About the Palm Pre?

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By Paul Carton
April 16, 2009

In recent years, ChangeWave consumer surveys have chronicled a seismic shift to smart phones, with Apple (AAPL) and Research In Motion (RIMM) locked in a two-horse race while most of their competitors have been caught in a downward spiral.

But does the upcoming Palm Pre launch signal another thoroughbred entering the smart phone race?

Early consumer reaction to the Palm Pre launch was one of several issues looked at in a March 17-23 ChangeWave survey of 4,292 cell phone owners, which also focused on the consumer impact of Apple's just announced iPhone upgrades.

Smart Phone Demand - Next 90 Days

The overall shift to smart phones continues, although a slight dip is forecast for the spring season, as Apple and Research In Motion have no immediate product launches scheduled for the next 90 days.

After the huge launch of the iPhone 3G and the impressive successes of the new Blackberry models, 11.2% of respondents say they'll be buying a smart phone over the next 90 days, 1-pt less than in our December 2008 survey.

Despite this small decline, the 11.2% number is the third-highest percentage recorded in a ChangeWave survey dating back to 2005 - and the new product launches and upgrades set for the summer are likely to boost that number as we approach the third quarter.

RIM vs. Apple vs. Palm

Research in Motion's BlackBerry models (41%) continue to maintain RIM as the overall market share leader among consumers, while Apple (24%; up 1-pt) remains firmly in second place.

Of course, future share is what we're most interested in, and that's where we are seeing the first signs of an uptick for Palm.

For only the second time since October 2006, Palm (4%; up 3-pts) has registered an uptick in planned smart phone purchases among consumers. The public anticipation generated by the recent Pre announcement is driving this Palm uptick, as we'll see in a moment.

Going forward RIM planned purchases remain strong - an accomplishment considering RIM recently completed a wave of new product launches, which normally results in a slowdown in the aftermath.

Yet among respondents planning to buy a new smart phone in the next 90 days, 37% say they'll get a RIM Blackberry - just 2-pts below the surge seen in our prior survey and the highest level of demand in the smart phone industry.

For comparative purposes, compare these RIM findings to the 22-pt drop Apple experienced between June and September 2008 (from 56% to 34%) in the aftermath of its successful iPhone 3G launch.

Note that consumer planned buying for the Apple iPhone remains steady (30%; unchanged), leaving Apple a strong second to RIM going forward.

Moreover, Apple is expected to release upgraded iPhone models with improved features and new pricing - perhaps as early as this summer. And in another positive for Apple, the survey results show these new models and pricing plans have considerable potential to move the needle:

9% of consumers say they are likely to buy a 32GB iPhone 3G ($299)

11% say they are likely to buy a 16GB iPhone 3G ($199)

8% say they are likely to buy the 8GB Traditional iPhone ($99)

The Cupertino, California manufacturer is also expected to release its next generation iPhone operating system - iPhone OS 3.0 - within the next few months. And one-in-five consumers (20%) say they're More Likely to buy an iPhone as a result.

But what of the Steve Jobs 'effect'? With his recent health disclosure and taking a leave of absence - midst speculation on whether Apple will stumble without him - we asked consumers what effect it would have on their likelihood of buying Apple products if Jobs were to permanently step down as CEO:

If Steve Jobs were to step down as the CEO of Apple, what effect - if any - would it have on your likelihood of buying Apple products in the future?

Four-in-five (80%) now say it would have No Effect on their likelihood of buying Apple products. And while 9% still say they'd be Less Likely to buy Apple products if Jobs steps down, that's a 5-pt improvement from six months ago.

So while Apple still has a long way to go in ameliorating consumer concern, things do appear to be moving in the right direction.

When you put it all together, our latest survey findings bode particularly well for the iPhone's long term outlook. Its latest moves have clearly positioned it for dynamic growth as the consumer economy moves out of recession.

A Closer Look at the Palm Pre

Unlike its two industry rivals who attract consumers simply on the strength of their brand name, Palm has numerous additional obstacles it will have to overcome for the Pre to reach its full market potential.

Our survey has taken a close-up look at the early demand trends for the 2009 Palm Pre launch, and compared them to the early potential demand for both the RIM Blackberry Bold (2008) and the original Apple iPhone (2007).

Note that in each comparison we were looking at all consumers, not simply those purchasing in the next 90 days:

A total of 1% of consumers say they're Very Likely and 4% Somewhat Likely to buy the new Palm Pre in the future. This compares to 4% Very and 13% Somewhat Likely before the 2008 RIM Bold launch, and 5% Very and 11% Somewhat Likely before the 2007 original iPhone launch.

Who are the most likely buyers of the new Palm Pre? Current Palm customers of course, with 14% saying they're Very Likely and 23% Somewhat Likely to buy the new model. Beyond existing Palm owners, the Pre also shows the potential to attract customers from some competitors, particularly Sanyo (3%) and HTC (3%).

Bottom Line. Clearly, for the first time in more than two years we are picking up increased consumer interest in Palm, and that in and of itself is a big improvement for the Sunnyvale, California manufacturer.

And while early interest for the Pre is less impressive than the early interest for the Bold or the iPhone, considering the enormous struggles Palm has had in recent years, the Pre appears likely to breathe life back into the company if the new model performs even close to expectations.

But above and beyond the Pre's performance, Palm itself will have to outperform mightily going forward for it to be competitive in this race. Not only are they up against two industry giants along with a slew of lesser competitors, but they have to overcome widespread negative perceptions about their recent product lines and major concerns about their exclusive Pre telephone service provider, Sprint.

Palm's Sprint Problem. The survey showed 17% of consumers say the most important reason they're not considering buying the Palm Pre is because they don't like the requirement to use Sprint. (We note, however, that the same percentage say they won't buy an iPhone because they'd have to use AT&T).

The bigger problem for Palm in our survey is that Sprint (10%) trails AT&T (31%) and Verizon (30%) by a huge margin in terms of current market share. Moreover, only 1% of consumers who are likely to change cellular service providers in the next six months say they'll switch to Sprint. Thus, considering Sprint's weakness, the Sprint exclusivity deal is yet another big obstacle Palm will have to overcome as part of its Pre launch.

Palm's Customer Satisfaction Problem. Only 31% of Palm's customers report they're Very Satisfied with their current Palm smart phone. Conversely, the Apple iPhone stands head-and-shoulders above the competition, with four-in-five owners (79%) now reporting they're Very Satisfied with their iPhone. RIM ranks a strong second with 50% of its customers saying they're Very Satisfied.

Thus even if the Pre can outperform, it will take world class marketing and a huge advertising budget for Palm to rebuild its brand name in order to compete successfully in the high end smart phone market.

In spite of the obstacles, the Pre shows real market potential, and it's no small feat to have stirred enough industry excitement to have nearly tripled Palm's stock price thus far in 2009.

But considering the multiple issues Palm faces in order to pull off a successful Pre launch, expect high volatility for the stock going forward. A post-launch cooling in the Street's love affair with Palm is very likely in the offing.

Jim Woods co-wrote this article.

TV Service Provider Wars

2009-04-21T14:30:08Z

Fiber-Optic Trumps the Cable and Satellite Providers

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By Paul Carton
April 9, 2009

Not so long ago consumers were abandoning traditional over-the-air TV broadcasting for cable and satellite service providers. Times have changed.

The latest ChangeWave consumer survey on TV service provider trends shows the newest entrant - fiber optics - is having a radical impact on the marketplace. The survey of 2,874 U.S. and Canadian respondents was conducted March 4-11, 2009.

Cable Still Leads but Fiber-Optic Providers Have Momentum

We asked respondents which TV service provider they subscribe to. The results from our last two years of surveys show a definitive market transformation is occurring.

While cable continues to hold the lion's share of the market - 63% of respondents say they currently subscribe to a cable TV service - that's 3-pts less than last December and an 8-pt drop from two years ago. At the same time, satellite providers (26%) have held steady.

So where's the growth? It's fiber optic TV service providers - up 3-pts since December 2008 and a five-fold increase in the past two years.

What does this mean at the individual provider level?

Cable Providers: Comcast (24%; unchanged) remains the overall market share leader, but is stuck at the same share level it held two years ago. Its closest rival in the cable market - Time Warner (10%; down 1-pt) - has lost share for the second consecutive survey and is down to its lowest level of the past two years.

Satellite: The satellite front remains the same as previously, with DIRECTV (13%; unchanged) maintaining its lead over DISH Network (10%; unchanged).

Newcomers Stealing the Show - Fiber Optics: Verizon FiOS (5%) and AT&T U-verse (3%) are relative newcomers to the TV service providers industry, but each has picked up 1-pt since December and shown consistent growth since they were first rolled out.

There's no great mystery why. Not all TV services are equal.

Customer Satisfaction

If you look at customer satisfaction levels, you can see the clear difference between types of providers.

While Satellite subscribers (27% Very Satisfied) remain far more content with their TV service than cable subscribers (13% Very Satisfied), fiber-optic services are in a class by themselves. By a huge margin, their customers give them the highest satisfaction rating (41% Very Satisfied).

At the company level, the wide divergence in customer satisfaction ratings becomes even clearer.

Verizon's (VZ) FiOS service tops the list with the highest percentage of customers who say they are Very Satisfied with their provider (48%). AT&T's (T) U-Verse service comes in second (40%).

The two Satellite providers - DIRECTV (34%) and DISH Network (DISH) (22%) - come in third and fourth respectively.

Bringing up the rear in terms of customer satisfaction are the cable companies, with Time Warner (9%) and Charter (9%) ranking dead last in terms of customer satisfaction.

Future Share: Who are Customers Switching Their Service To?

Looking ahead, we asked respondents if they planned to switch TV service providers in the next six months. A total of 14% report they'll be switching, up 2-pts from previously.

But which companies are going to gain when customers switch?

Considering the above satisfaction ratings, it's no surprise that more than two-in-five of those planning to switch say they'll choose a fiber-optic service - a 3-pt jump since the previous survey.

As the following chart shows, Verizon FiOS TV (28%; up 7-pts) tops the list of where switchers plan to move to in the next six months - registering by far the biggest gain of any service provider.

In addition, more than a third of potential switchers say they'll transfer to a satellite service provider - and within this group DIRECTV (25%; down 1-pt) has a two-to-one market share advantage over DISH Network (12%; down 2-pts).

But once again, the cable service providers are at the end of the line.

Reasons For Switching

We also asked those who were switching to tell us the primary reasons behind their plans to switch, and price remains far and away the top reason.

Better than one-in-two (51%) who plan to switch cite Price - a 3-pt increase since December 2008 and a gigantic 14-pt move in the past nine months.

Bundling of Services (15%; up 4-points) now ranks second as a reason for switching, while New Service Features (11%; down 4-pts) has fallen to third.

Bottom Line: Once not so long ago it was cable and satellite that were the upstarts providing an attractive alternative to traditional over-the-air TV broadcasting. Now it's fiber optics, a relative newcomer in the TV service provider market that has grabbed the momentum among consumers.

While Verizon's FiOS TV and AT&T's U-verse still trail their cable and satellite competitors, they've both experienced strong growth since their introduction. And if customer satisfaction is a good indication of future growth potential - and it is - both FiOS TV and U-verse are positioning themselves to dominate the industry going forward.

Will Consumers Be Heading to Restaurants Again?

2009-04-21T14:18:20Z

Latest Survey Shows a Leveling Off in Rate of Spending Decline

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April 2, 2009

ChangeWave's March survey of U.S. consumers points to a continued tough spending environment, with restaurants remaining one of the weakest spending areas. But in a hopeful sign, the rate of decline has leveled off compared to our previous survey.

During the weeks of Feb 17-23 and Mar 3-10, we surveyed consumers on their dining habits to determine - among other things - whether there are any dining categories and restaurant chains showing signs of improvement.

Continued Hard Times

After a 16-month downward spiral the rate of restaurant spending decline is leveling off. Half of respondents (50%) still say they'll spend less money at restaurants going forward; however, that's 2-pts better than the February measure.

Just 5% say they'll be spending more at restaurants - unchanged from our all-time low.

Other key findings:

One-in-three consumers (33%) say they'll dine at Less Expensive restaurants going forward compared to just 1% who say they'll dine at More Expensive ones.

34% of respondents expect to dine out Less Frequently over the next 90 days, compared to just 6% who say they'll dine out More Frequently. We do note, however, that this is a net 6-pt improvement from the last time we asked this question in November 2008.

Looking at the past 90 days, 44% say they've been Eating More Meals at Home, although that's 4-pts less than previously. Another 34% say they've been Using Coupons/ Discounts More Frequently - and that's a 2-pt increase since November.

Top Reasons for Dining Out Less

For the second consecutive survey, Reduced Income (38%; up 5-pts) has risen as a key concern and is one of the top reasons why consumers expect to dine out less frequently. Job Security Concerns (14%; up 2-pts) has also moved up as a key reason.

Hardest Hit Restaurants

Dining Frequency is still slowing in every restaurant category, but it's worth noting that our category results aren't as bad as in our November survey.

Upscale/Fine Dining Restaurants continue to take the biggest hit, with only 3% of respondents saying they'll dine at them " More Often" over the next 90 days, while 37% say "Less Often" (Net Difference Score = -34). Nonetheless, these results are a 6-pt improvement over the previous survey.

High End Casual Restaurants are also still suffering (-29), but have managed to register a 4-pt improvement. Quick Casual/ Family Restaurants (-2) and Fast Food Restaurants (-2) have both posted a 1-pt improvement.

Individual Restaurant Chains

We also asked respondents which individual restaurant chains they'll be spending more money and less money at over the next 90 days. We then compared the current results with the findings from our previous survey.

While it's tough to show improvement in a weak market, we've identified a handful of chains that have experienced a slight uptick in the percentage of consumers who say they'll spend more vs. less money there over the next 90 days.

Best Positioned. In the Moderate Casual Dining category, Olive Garden (+2) shows some signs of improvement going forward.

Among Quick Casual Restaurants, Denny's (+2) shows an uptick, while among Fast Food Restaurants Subway (+2) shows slight signs of improvement.

Worst Positioned. On the down side, California Pizza Kitchen (-3) and Taco Bell (-3) are registering the two biggest declines going forward of any of the chains looked at in the survey.

All in all, we are in a very challenging spending environment, but while restaurant spending remains one of the weakest of all sectors, the good news is the rate of decline is leveling off from record low levels.

On a note of optimism about the future, 38% of respondents say they'll go back to spending more each month on restaurants and eating out when the economy improves, compared to just 10% who say they'll continue to spend less each month.

Beta Testers Weigh In On New Windows 7 Operating System

2009-04-21T14:09:11Z

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March 27, 2009

The anticipation surrounding Microsoft's new Windows 7 operating system seems to be swelling in direct proportion to the frustration of current Vista users.

But can the new software live up to its hype, or will it prove another Microsoft letdown? To find out ChangeWave surveyed 68 Windows 7 beta testers between February 9 and 17. Here's what we found:

Early Satisfaction Ratings

First, when beta testers were asked how satisfied they were with Windows 7 the results were encouraging - particularly compared to the early satisfaction readings for Vista.

Better than two-in-five respondents (44%) said their company was Very Satisfied with the new Windows 7 product. In comparison, back in a February 2007 ChangeWave survey soon after Vista's release, only 10% said they were Very Satisfied.

Next, we asked respondents to name their specific likes and dislikes for the Windows 7 OS.

Significant improvements were cited in performance and speed. As one respondent put it, "The new software is quick to install, and picked up all of the correct drivers." Another noted that it "Takes less memory and boots faster, and reminds me of a new XP."

Others cited the product's user-friendliness and functionality. "It has a clean interface, and commonly used menus are more accessible," wrote one beta tester. "The desktop is cleaner," said another, "and the OS can be customized with whatever services you want to run."

There were also some gripes, with respondents primarily complaining about Windows 7's instability and incompatibility with older software and hardware - a familiar complaint for a new OS.

"A little unstable when using non-Microsoft applications," wrote one respondent. Another complained about how "Internet Explorer 8.0 beta has been crashing regularly." Still others felt Windows 7 was too much like Vista - slow and inefficient, with one grumbling "Windows 7 performance isn't any better than Vista - and that's disconcerting."

Waiting for Windows 7

In the same survey we also asked 2,000 corporate IT buyers about their company upgrade plans, and more than half (53%) said they plan to skip Vista altogether while just 15% said they are still going ahead with a Vista rollout.

In yet another finding, 14% said their company is already deferring at least some of their PC and server purchases to wait for Windows 7.

The Bottom Line

The Windows 7 beta has so far received a much warmer reception than Vista.

Of course, beta testers tend to be hard-core techies and the ultimate test is how satisfaction holds up when mainstream users get their hands on the new software.

Importantly, Microsoft should remember Windows 7 isn't the only game in town.

Back in a February 2008 ChangeWave corporate IT spending survey, Apple's Mac OS Leopard system received a 53% Very Satisfied rating from users - 9-pts higher than the new Windows 7 gets currently.

Consumer Sentiment Deteriorates Further

2009-03-17T17:26:12Z

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By Paul Carton
March 17, 2009

ChangeWave's latest consumer spending survey shows a worsening in U.S. consumer sentiment and expectations.

Seven-in-ten (70%) consumers now believe the overall direction of the U.S. economy is going to worsen over the next 90 days - 6-pts more than a month ago. Only 7% believe the economy will improve - a decline of 1-pt to the lowest level ever in a ChangeWave survey.

The ChangeWave survey of 2,710 U.S. consumers was conducted March 3-10, 2009, and there were other sentiment indicators that echoed these findings, including:

66% of respondents reported they are dissatisfied with their personal finances - 7-pts worse than in February. Just 3% said they are Very Satisfied.

67% said they're Less Confident in the U.S. stock market than they were 90 days ago - a whopping 25-pts worse than previously. Only 7% said More Confident - 7-pts worse than previously. Once again, that's the worst ever for a ChangeWave survey.

In terms of actual spending, the best that can be said about the March survey is that the rate of consumer spending going forward is similar to the rate seen in February. In other words, the month over month spending rate is essentially flat.

On the upside, 13% of U.S. respondents now say they'll spend more money over the next 90 days - which is 1-pt better than in February. However, 62% say they'll spend less money, 1-pt worse than previously.

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Impact of U.S. Stimulus Tax Credit Appears Far Different than Intended

We also asked respondents who expect to receive a tax credit as part of the recently enacted U.S. economic stimulus package, to tell us how they'll most likely use the money.

The results may be disheartening to those who believe the stimulus tax credit ($400 per individual/ $800 per family) will help jumpstart U.S. consumer spending.

While a strong majority of respondents say they're most likely to use the special tax credit to either pay down debt (34%), save the money (29%), or spend it on everyday items (29%), only a tiny percentage say they'll spend it on consumer electronics (2%) or big ticket items (1%).

As the above comparative chart shows, these results are even more bearish than our findings back in May 2008 on the likely usage of the Bush tax rebate checks.

Thus, these survey findings dispute the notion that consumers will race out to spend their tax credit and thereby stimulate the economy. Rather, the findings present a picture of an American consumer hunkered down and trying to wait out the recession.

Retail Spending Trends

Costco (COST; +3) and Wal-Mart (WMT; +2) are the only U.S. retailers in our survey that registered even a slight increase in overall spending going forward.

Nonetheless, for the third month in a row, spending on Household Repairs/ Improvements has shown signs of inching up. And while Restaurant spending continues to be the weakest of all categories, here too we're seeing a slight improvement over a month ago.

Consumer Electronics spending, however, has once again recorded a record new low for a ChangeWave survey. Only 10% of respondents say they'll spend more on electronics over the next 90 days compared to 46% who will spend less - a net 5-pts worse than previously.

And there's more bad news for industry leader Best Buy (BBY). Even though its perennial rival has closed the doors for good, Best Buy shows no signs of capitalizing in terms of increasing its market share in home entertainment shopping going forward.

On the contrary, even with Circuit City gone only 33% say they'll shop at Best Buy over the next 90 days - 5-pts less than in February and the lowest level since we first began asking this question nearly three years ago.

On a brighter note, Amazon (AMZN) (26%; up 1-pt) continues to hold its own in the home entertainment and networking market, up 1-pt since the previous survey.

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Jean Crumrine co-wrote this article.

U.S. Economy Continues to Tailspin - But There Are Glints of Hope Going Forward

2009-03-11T14:47:55Z

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By Paul Carton
March 11, 2009

Last quarter's accelerating U.S. economic freefall has extended right through 1st Quarter 2009 - and a new ChangeWave survey shows yet a further downturn in corporate sales projections and in customer willingness to spend.

Our latest corporate survey, however, also contains glints of hope, including a slight leveling off in the rate of contraction going forward.

But the bottom line is that the U.S. economy remains caught in the clutches of a recession far deeper and more painful than that of 2001 - including alarmingly grim hiring trends and a continued pullback in capital spending. The ChangeWave survey was completed March 3rd, 2009, and a total of 3,076 U.S. respondents participated.

Tailspin Continues in the 1st Quarter

One-in-two respondents (52%) now project that their company sales will come in Below Plan for 1st Quarter 2009 - 1-pt worse than the previous quarter. Only 9% say their company sales will come in Above Plan - a 2-pt decrease.

As the following chart shows, the 1st Quarter (Mar '09) corporate sales projections are the worst ever recorded in a ChangeWave survey dating back to the depths of the 2001 recession.

We also asked respondents to rate the current willingness of their existing customers to spend money on their company's products and services, and more than three-quarters (76%) say their customers have either a Yellow Light to spend (i.e., spending is downsized, though not completely stopped) or a Red Light (i.e., spending is virtually on hold).

Just 18% report that their existing customers have a Green Light to spend (i.e., spending is normal).

The U.S. labor market also remains in a dismal state. Only 7% say there are More new hires in their company at this point in the 1st Quarter vs. last quarter - a 1-pt decline since the previous survey. Another 30% say there are Less new hires - a tiny 1-pt improvement from previously, but overall the 2nd worst reading since we began asking this question five years ago.

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But Longer Term Outlook Contains Glints of Hope

As terrible as the current quarter looks, the longer term economic outlook is beginning to show the first tiny signs of hope.

First, the projected sales pipeline decline for the 2nd quarter - while still horrific - is not quite as bad as the collapse recorded in our previous survey. While just 11% say their company will come in Above Plan - that nonetheless represents a 2-pt improvement from previously. At the same time, 38% report they'll come in Below Plan - 1-pt improved over the previous survey.

Thus, for the first time in more than two years we're picking up a slight leveling off in the rate of contraction going forward.

Secondly, we're seeing a similar deceleration in the rate of cap spending decline. Capital spending is still in the midst of a gigantic pullback going forward, but the cap spending rate of decline is also not quite as bad as the collapse recorded last quarter.

Only 5% project an increase in their company's 2nd Quarter capital budget while 41% project a decrease - but that's a net 3-pt improvement over the previous survey.

And third, for the first time in 15 months one of the key causes of the recession - the credit crunch - appears to have stopped worsening, although it is clearly continuing to have a seriously negative impact on U.S. business.

While three-in-ten respondents (30%) continue to say that it is harder for their company to borrow money than it was just 90 days ago - that's unchanged from the previous survey. And 1% now say it is easier to borrow money, 1-pt better than previously.

To be clear, the credit crisis still remains significantly worse than it was even 90 days ago, but the rate of decline finally shows some signs of stabilizing.

What To Keep Your Eye On Going Forward

The difficulty of turning around an economy plunged headlong into recession is somewhat akin to turning around an out-of-control Supertanker. In short, the first sign of improvement is often simply a leveling off in the rate of economic freefall.

And although there are no signs of a leveling off during the abysmal 1st Quarter, the longer term economic outlook is beginning to show the first tiny signs of hope.

In other words, while the U.S. economy remains in a tailspin, the rate of decline going forward has begun to slow. The tricky part is whether this is a temporary trough before a further collapse, or if we're starting to see the first early signs of a bottom.

Future surveys will provide the answer. But for now, let's not forget that coming out of a recession is usually far bumpier than going into one.

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Jean Crumrine co-wrote this article.

Fiercely Negative IT Spending for 1st Half '09 - A Glint of Hope for 2nd Half

2009-03-04T20:00:49Z

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By Paul Carton
March 4, 2009

The collapse in U.S. business spending we reported last quarter has extended right into the New Year - though ChangeWave's latest corporate IT purchasing survey does show a slight leveling off in the rate of decline for 1st half 2009 and a glint of hope for the 2nd half.

A total of 1,939 respondents involved with IT spending in their organization participated in the ChangeWave survey, conducted February 9-17, 2009.

Still Bad - But Not Quite As Awful As Last Quarter

Better than two-in-five respondents (41%) say their company's IT spending will decrease (or there will be no spending at all) for the 2nd Quarter - an extraordinarily high number, but nonetheless 4-pts improved over our November survey.

Only 10% say their IT spending will increase - unchanged from previously.

Thus while the decline in planned IT spending is the second worst on record for a ChangeWave survey dating back to 2001, it's not quite as bad as the huge nose-dive we recorded last quarter. Statistically speaking, we are witnessing a slight leveling off in the rate of decline.

We also asked respondents if their IT spending was on track thus far in the 1st Quarter, and here the results are virtually a mirror image of our previous survey.

Nearly four-in-ten respondents (38%) say they've spent "Less than Planned" so far in the 1st quarter, while just 7% have spent "More than Planned."

Regarding individual IT categories, Servers (Change in Net Difference Score = -3) has registered the biggest slowdown since the previous quarter. Networking (-2), PCs (-1), and Security (-1) also look weaker.

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A Glint of Hope for 2nd Half 2009

It's when we asked respondents about the 2nd half of 2009 (Jul-Dec) that we begin to see the first potential signs of improvement.

A total of 28% think their company's IT budget will be less than the 1st half - but that's a significant 20-pt improvement over our previous survey.

And while just 14% think their 2nd half budget will be greater than the 1st half, that's also a 4-pt improvement. Importantly, these survey results support the likelihood of a further leveling off in the rate of IT spending decline for the second half of 2009.

Slowdown for Corporate Smart Phones

There's little in the way of good news for planned smart phone buying, which looks set to slow in the 2nd quarter - the first time we've picked such up a reduction in more than 18 months.

Just 33% of respondents report their company plans to buy smart phones next quarter - a 2-pt decline from previously.

In terms of manufacturers, RIM (77%; down 1-pt) appears set to maintain its dominant share of corporate planned purchases going forward. Apple (22%) remains in second place - unchanged from previously.

Bottom Line

Virtually all signs point to an extremely tough corporate spending environment going forward. The decline in planned IT spending is the second worst on record for a ChangeWave survey.

But last quarter's results were the absolute worst.

Thus in what amounts to a tiny positive these days, our latest survey shows a slight leveling off in the rate of IT spending decline for 1st half 2009 - and contains a glint of hope for the 2nd half.

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Jean Crumrine co-wrote this article.

Another Decline In Consumer PC Buying

2009-02-24T14:15:46Z

Even As Netbook Sales Remain Firm

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By Paul Carton
February 24, 2009

While the technology is getting faster, consumer PC demand keeps getting slower and slower.

There's been yet another decline in PC buying, according to ChangeWave's latest survey of 3,115 consumers. The February 2-9, 2009 survey focused on PC purchasing trends, including the demand for low-end "Netbook" computers.

Tough Times for PCs

Going forward, planned PC buying remains at the lowest levels ever recorded in a ChangeWave survey.

Only 4% of respondents say they'll buy a desktop in the next 90 days - 1-pt less than in our January 2009 survey. In addition, just 6% say they'll buy a laptop - unchanged from previously.

We also note that overall Consumer Electronics spending is at the lowest level since we began measuring consumer purchasing in 2002. Only 12% of respondents say they'll spend more on electronics over the next 90 days, compared to 43% who say they'll spend less - clear signs of further deterioration in this space.

Demand For Netbooks Remains Firm

Our previous survey showed low-cost, highly portable laptops with smaller screens - popularly known as Netbooks - have been one of the few beneficiaries of this tough spending environment. The latest survey results reinforce this finding.

Going forward, 18% of respondents say that the laptop they plan on buying in the next 90 days will be a Netbook, which is 4-pts higher than in January. The list of leading Netbook manufacturers includes Acer and ASUS.

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Purchasing Trends: Next 90 Days

Within the weaker overall PC spending environment, Apple planned laptop purchases (30%) for the next 90 days have improved 3-pts since our previous survey in January. But even as Mac laptops are managing to muddle through, planned desktop purchases (26%) have dipped 2-pts.

Note that the stabilizing trend we've picked up in Mac laptops going forward has occurred in the aftermath of the sharp drop we saw in planned Mac purchases back in our January survey.

NPD's latest data on January Mac sales confirms that there was indeed a sharp January downturn for Apple. NPD now estimates that actual Mac sales were down 6% for the month.

And even as our new February numbers show some stabilizing occurring in Apple market share, it's important to remember that this is occurring in a PC buying environment that is the lowest on record in a ChangeWave survey (6% for laptops and 4% for desktops).

H-P and Dell

In the case of Hewlett-Packard, visibility appears similar to our January results - with planned desktop purchases unchanged at 28% and planned laptops (22%) dipping 1-pt. In viewing these H-P results, keep in mind that approximately 70% of its sales come from outside the U.S., whereas our surveys focus primarily on the U.S. market. Also, this survey focused exclusively on consumer PC sales. Our corporate PC results will be released later this month.

In the case of Dell, things just keep getting tougher and tougher. Planned consumer purchases of Dell Desktops (32%) and Laptops (26%) for the next 90 days have both fallen 2-pts.

Satisfaction Guaranteed?

In terms of customer satisfaction, there's no question which company is the industry leader.

Among respondents who bought an Apple Mac over the past 90 days, 81% say they are Very Satisfied. This compares to a 55% Very Satisfied rating for Dell and 52% for H-P.

We note that ASUS (67% Very Satisfied) and Acer (61% Very Satisfied) both ranked highly in the current survey - yet one more sign of the powerful impact Netbooks are having on the consumer PC market.

The question that arises: Even with the big hits Apple Mac Laptops have taken in our September and January surveys, why are they still managing to somehow muddle along in this incredibly tough spending environment?

For the answer, take another look at the above satisfaction chart.

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Jim Woods co-wrote this article.

February Outlook Worsens for U.S. Consumers

2009-02-18T18:24:05Z

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By Paul Carton
February 18, 2009

The tiny signs of stabilization we picked up in our January consumer spending survey proved extremely short-lived.

ChangeWave's February national survey results point to yet another leg downward in U.S. consumer spending going forward. Consumer sentiment has also taken a big hit, with two-in-three respondents now believing the overall direction of the U.S. economy is going to worsen over the next 90 days.

The ChangeWave survey of 2,701 U.S. consumers was conducted February 2-9, 2009.

Grim Spending Outlook

While our January consumer survey contained intriguing signs of a leveling off in the rate of spending decline, the February results show a reversal and represent the worst spending outlook ever recorded in a ChangeWave survey.

Better than three-in-five U.S. respondents (61%) say they'll spend less money over the next 90 days, 4-pts worse than our early January survey.

Just 12% say they'll spend more money - 1-pt worse than previously.

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A Decline in Consumer Sentiment and Expectations

We also asked respondents about their impressions of the economy, and find consumer sentiment and expectations have turned considerably more negative.

Three-in-five (64%) respondents think the overall direction of the U.S. economy will worsen over the next 90 days - 8-pts worse than a month ago. Only 8% believe the economy will improve - a 4-pt decline to the lowest reading since we began asking this question.

Other sentiment indicators are even less encouraging:

Only 14% say they are More Confident in the U.S. stock market than they were 90 days ago, 12-pts worse than previously. We note that 42% say they're Less Confident, which is 11-pts worse than previously.

Three-in-five respondents (59%) report they are dissatisfied with their personal finances, 1-pt worse than January. Just 4% say they are Very Satisfied.

Worried About Their Nest Eggs

For the sixth consecutive survey since July, Saving More Money (42%; up 1-pt) has risen as a key concern and is now one of the top reasons why consumers are spending less. Reducing Debt (35%; down 1-pt) also remains a top reason.

But the number one reason is Reduced Income (44%; up 6-pts), which has surged 6-pts since January alone.

This astonishing jump in such a short time highlights the seriousness of the impact the financial crisis is having on consumers.

Where Is Spending Slowing Most?

New record lows for a ChangeWave survey have been recorded in Consumer Electronics spending and Restaurant spending. Durable Goods for the home have also taken a big hit.

Interestingly, for the second survey in a row we've picked up a stabilizing in Household Repairs/Improvements spending. One explanation: some consumers may have made home improvements their New Year's resolution.

Retail Store Trends

Our latest survey results show the U.S. has hit the point in the recessionary cycle where even the mightiest of retailers are being brought to their knees.

Case in point: Costco (COST), which has already experienced a significant drop in its growth rate in recent months. Nonetheless, the plunge over the past month (-5) appears particularly unnerving, and is the biggest downward move we've seen so far for Costco.

Wal-Mart (WMT) has performed admirably over most of this same time period, but it too appears to be hitting a wall going forward. Only 13% of consumers say they'll spend more at Wal-Mart and 11% less, which is a 4-pt plunge since January.

Not surprisingly, the greatest weakness of all going forward is among traditional retailers - led by Macy's (M; -13) and Sears (SHLD; -13). Target (TGT; -10) has also taken a huge hit in recent weeks, plunging 3-pts.

Home Entertainment Shopping

On the home entertainment front, even as Circuit City (3%; down 4-pts) sells off its remaining inventory, Best Buy (BBY) (38%; unchanged) continues to show few signs of any windfall from the shutdown of its perennial rival. Its market share remains significantly below that of a year ago (-7).

Apple (AAPL) (9%; down 2-pts) and Target (6%; down 2-pts) have also experienced new declines since January in the home entertainment market.

Amazon (AMZN; 25%), however, continues to hold its own, up 1-pt from previously.

Consumer PC Buying

The personal computer market continues to weaken, according to our latest survey results. Going forward, planned PC buying remains at the lowest level ever recorded in a ChangeWave survey.

Only 4% of respondents say they'll buy a desktop in the next 90 days - 1-pt less than in our January 2009 survey. In addition, just 6% say they'll buy a laptop - unchanged from previously.

For the complete Consumer PC Buying survey results - including the latest data on Apple, H-P and Dell - click here.

Tough Times

Our February survey results show an overall spending environment that remains fiercely negative, even as the tiny signs of stabilization we saw last month proved short lived.

Economically speaking, the honeymoon period for the new U.S. Administration and President appears over. Not only are further spending declines in store for the next 90 days, but consumer confidence and expectations for the future have worsened considerably.

After 13 months of recession, U.S. consumer spending is still trending downwards.

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Jean Crumrine co-wrote this article.